About SupaPicks

We built the analytical engine
football tips deserve.

SupaPicks is a data-driven football prediction platform founded in Lagos, Nigeria. We combine expected goals modelling, head-to-head statistical analysis and expert editorial to publish the most analytically rigorous football tips available — free, every day, for bettors who want to understand the edge behind every pick.

186+
Tips published daily
across 24 markets
40+
Leagues covered
worldwide
73%
30-day overall
tip win rate
07:30
WAT daily update
7 days a week
Home› About
The Story

Built from frustration
with lazy tips.

SupaPicks started in Lagos because we got tired of the same thing every serious bettor gets tired of: prediction sites that post a home win for the league leader against a relegation-zone team and call it "analysis." Three lines of text. No data. No edge explanation. No accountability. Just a result.

We are analysts before we are tipsters. The people behind SupaPicks spent years building models for themselves — tracking xG, studying H2H patterns, comparing bookmaker margins across markets — before we decided the platform we had built deserved to be public. The move from private model to public product was driven by one conviction: bettors who understand the data behind a tip make better decisions.

Every tip on SupaPicks comes with the same analytical infrastructure that drives professional sports betting operations — the difference is that we explain our reasoning openly, publish our win rates transparently, and never hide a bad week. Accountability is not a feature. It is the product.

"We don't publish tips we haven't already backed ourselves."

— Taiwo Mensah, Lead Analyst, SupaPicks
The Model

Five layers of analysis
behind every single tip.

The SupaPicks model is not a single algorithm. It is a five-stage evaluation process that runs on every fixture across every market we cover. Each layer independently evaluates the outcome probability — only when all five converge does a selection earn a Very High Confidence rating.

1
Expected Goals (xG) Data
Fixture-specific xG and xGA rates, split by home and away venue, weighted 60% on the last 8 games and 40% on the full season. Adjusted for opponent quality using a strength-of-schedule factor across the last 10 matches.
2
Head-to-Head Base Rates
Fixture-specific historical frequencies for the specific outcome being evaluated — not just match results, but market-specific base rates: BTTS frequency, Over 2.5 frequency, scoreline distribution, HT/FT pattern history. Last 10 H2H meetings minimum.
3
Contextual Motivation Analysis
League position stakes, cup elimination risk, derby/rivalry intensity multipliers, fixture congestion and rotation probability, managerial job security factors, and known lineup intelligence from training ground reports and pre-match press conferences.
4
Schedule and Fatigue Adjustment
Days since last fixture, travel distance for away teams, injury return timelines, suspension clearances, and altitude/climate differentials for international fixtures. Applied as a performance decay or recovery multiplier on the xG baseline.
5
Market Signal
Line movement analysis — how bookmaker odds have shifted since opening. Significant moves toward a specific outcome signal professional money on that side. We use market signal as a validation check: when our model agrees with sharp money, confidence increases. When they diverge, we investigate.
Track Record

30-day performance
across all markets.

All rates measured on individual tip win/loss outcomes, not accumulator results. Updated monthly. Our full historical record is available on the Statistics page.

Product / Market Tips / Month Win Rate Avg Odds 30-Day ROI
Sure Wins 150 84% 1.32 +10.9%
Sure 2 60 79% 1.74 +37.5%
Sure 3 90 71% 1.74 +23.5%
Win Either Half 540 81% 1.55 +25.6%
Double Chance 540 79% 1.42 +12.2%
Draw No Bet 540 76% 1.68 +27.7%
BTTS 540 72% 1.78 +28.2%
Over/Under 2.5 540 69% 1.82 +25.6%
Asian Handicap 540 74% 1.88 +39.1%
HT/FT 540 58% 3.45 +100.1%
Take the Risk 120 28% 9.80 +34.4%
Overall (all markets) ~5,580 73% 1.74 +27.0%
The Team

Analysts who bet
what they publish.

Every analyst at SupaPicks has skin in the game. We operate on a single rule: no tip is published unless the analyst who wrote the analysis has backed it personally at the time of publication. This eliminates the fundamental conflict of interest that undermines most tip services — publishing for volume rather than for value.

TM
Taiwo Mensah
Lead Analyst & Co-Founder
10 years building football betting models. Former quant researcher, now full-time analyst. Leads the five-layer model architecture and publishes the Sure 2, Daily VIP and HT/FT market selections.
xG Modelling HT/FT EPL · La Liga
AO
Ade Ola
Senior Football Analyst
Lead analyst for the Sure Wins, WEH and BTTS market pages. Specialises in clean-sheet probability modelling and defensive line analysis. Covers Serie A and African leagues in depth.
BTTS Sure Wins Serie A · AFCON
KA
Kofi Asante
Asian Handicap Specialist
Former trader at a major European bookmaker. Joined SupaPicks to apply sharper market intelligence to our AH and DNB pages. Builds and maintains the market signal layer of the model.
Asian Handicap DNB Market Signal
IA
Ifeoma Adeyemi
Stats & Player Props Analyst
Data scientist by background. Leads all player prop, corners, offsides and cards modelling. Builds the per-90 player performance database and fixture-specific stat market models.
Player Props Corners Offsides · Cards
DB
David Boateng
Bundesliga & Ligue 1 Lead
Deep Bundesliga and Ligue 1 specialist with 8 years watching and modelling German and French football. Covers goal markets and Asian Handicap for both leagues with unmatched fixture context knowledge.
Bundesliga Ligue 1 Goals · AH
Our Values

Four principles that
govern every tip.

🔬
Evidence over intuition
Every selection is backed by data that can be independently verified. We never publish "gut feel" tips. If the model and the evidence don't support it, it doesn't appear on the site.
📋
Transparent accountability
We publish our win rates, ROI and historical record for every market. We don't hide bad days, delete old tips or cherry-pick results. Our track record is public and unedited.
⚖️
Value over volume
We publish fewer tips than most sites. Every tip requires a minimum model edge of 4pt. We never pad the card to reach a target count. Quality of selection is the only criterion.
🏥
Responsible gambling first
Every page carries a responsible gambling reminder. We never claim guaranteed wins, never sell "VIP insider access," and always recommend staking guidelines that treat bankroll preservation as a primary goal.
Get in touch with SupaPicks
Questions about our model, methodology, or a tip? Reach us on Telegram or by email. We read every message — Taiwo responds to analytical questions personally.

For partnership and advertising enquiries: partnerships@supapicks.com
Telegram @Official100tip support@supapicks.com
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